Monday 18 February 2013

Cap on Capitalism? Jeremy Grantham on BBC World Service Global Business

A colleague at UNSW shared this interesting and disquieting interview by the BBC's Peter Day with investment expert Jeremy Grantham on taking a long-term view on capitalism and the global economy: "[T]he assumptions which have powered the industrial revolution for two centuries are looking pretty threadbare. So, how do we manage technological progress in a world of finite resources?" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0148yp8)

Here is an excerpted passage I transcribed, in my view worth meditating on: @ 23:00

"We need to reconcile ourselves to the fact that in the long run you cannot have physical growth in a finite world. You can have qualitative growth, but you can't have physical growth. All you have to do is be slightly familiar with the compounding problem. I used to talk about 4.5% was the GDP growth rate of the entire planet in physical output in 2005 and 2006, and I was saying, if the ancient Egyptian empire had kept that up for 3,000 years, a cubic metre of physical possessions would have compounded to more than our ... solar system could handle ... A full of physical possessions at 4.5% compounded for 3,000 years, go and check it, it's correct, you can't compound at the kind of loony numbers we've been talking about. Now you can have qualitative improvements, you can have even better iPads, you can have even smaller television sets that project on the wall in three dimensions, you can do that, but you cannot have compound increase in physical output, nor can you use your resources in a compound way." (Jeremy Grantham on BBC World Service Global Business)

(http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0148yp8)